Sunday, March 21, 2010

4.4.3 Risk Control

The main objective of risk management is to identify the top few risk items and then focus on them. Once a project manager has identified and prioritized the risks, the top risks can be easily identified. The question then becomes what to do about them. Knowing the risks is of value only if you can prepare a plan so that their consequences are minimal—that is the basic goal of risk management.
 
One obvious strategy is risk avoidance, which entails taking actions that will avoid the risk altogether, like the earlier example of shifting the building site to a zone that is not earthquake-prone. For some risks, avoidance might be possible.

For most risks, the strategy is to perform the actions that will either reduce the probability of the risk materializing or reduce the loss due to the risk materializing. These are called risk mitigation steps. To decide what mitigation steps to take, a list of commonly used risk mitigation steps for various risks is very useful here. For the risks mentioned in Figure 4.3, suitable risk mitigation steps are also given.
 
Note that unlike risk assessment, which is largely an analytical exercise, risk mitigation comprises active measures that have to be performed to minimize the impact of risks. In other words, selecting a risk mitigation step is not just an intellectual exercise. The risk mitigation step must be executed (and monitored). To ensure that the needed actions are executed properly, they must be incorporated into the detailed project schedule.
 
Risk prioritization and consequent planning are based on the risk perception at the time the risk analysis is performed. Because risks are probabilistic events that frequently depend on external factors, the threat due to risks may change with time as factors change. Clearly, then, the risk perception may also change with time. Furthermore, the risk mitigation steps undertaken may affect the risk perception.
 
This dynamism implies that risks in a project should not be treated as static and must be monitored and reevaluated periodically. Hence, in addition to monitoring the progress of the planned risk mitigation steps, a project must periodically revisit the risk perception and modify the risk mitigation plans, if needed. Risk monitoring is the activity of monitoring the status of various risks and their control activities. One simple approach for risk monitoring is to analyze the risks afresh at each major milestone, and change the plans as needed.

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